05 / MEDIA & PERCEPTION
Why We Sometimes Believe Crime Is Increasing
When a frightening event happens nearby—or a series of incidents appears repeatedly in our feeds—it can feel as though crime is rising everywhere. That feeling is understandable, but a feeling of increased risk and a measured increase in crime are not the same thing.
Memorable stories can feel more common
People often judge how likely an event is by how easily examples come to mind. Dramatic, recent, or emotionally intense stories may be easier to remember than ordinary days when nothing happens. News and social media can repeatedly expose us to incidents from different places, making events far away feel close. This can shape our impressions without giving us a representative sample of crime in our own community.
Research on fear of crime finds that fear is complex and measured in different ways; it does not map neatly onto recorded crime rates. See the peer-reviewed review “Measuring fear of crime during the past 25 years”.
Personal experience matters, but it is not the whole trend
If you or someone you care about has been harmed, it is reasonable for that experience to change how you feel. At the same time, a personal experience or a handful of headlines cannot by itself show whether crime across a city has increased. Different crime types may also move in different directions at the same time.
How to check the impression
- Ask what place, crime category, and time period the claim refers to.
- Look for official data across multiple years, not only a single incident or month.
- Check whether the source reports raw counts, rates per resident, or survey estimates.
- Notice whether a story concerns your neighborhood or a different part of a large city.
- Give yourself permission to step away from repeated alarming updates if they are increasing distress, while still following credible safety guidance.
Taking fear seriously does not require assuming the worst. We can care about victims, take sensible precautions, and still ask whether the evidence supports a broader claim.
Educational note: This article explains common patterns in risk perception; it does not determine current crime trends in any particular city.